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Monday, November 29, 2021

Natural Gas: Gap-Up Opening Could Trigger A Fresh Rally Ahead

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On Friday, found a strong reversal after testing the day’s low at $4.839, before testing a high at $5.155. This trend shows the presence of value-seeking buyers below $5. Natural gas futures could trade in a range-bound manner between $4.888 – $6.739 during the coming week amid growing uncertainty regarding the weather outlook.

Currently, natural gas futures are under selling pressure due to growing concern over the resurging pandemic that could disrupt the production and export of U.S. natural gas. But, winter could knock on the door anytime during the coming week, and that could propel natural gas futures into creating a gap-up on the first trading session of the week.

Natural gas futures could find a sustainable move above $5.868 that might be the first confirmation the current uptrend is continuing. Undoubtedly, if the commodity finds a breakout above the psychological resistance at $6, that will be the second confirmation. On the other hand, a two-digit weekly injection could attract bears, pushing natural gas prices to break support at $4.726.

A sharp downward move will provide an opportunity to go long above the $4.444 level, as the reversal could be equally strong from this level. The rollover of December contracts on Nov. 21, 2021 will decide the directional move of natural gas futures during the upcoming week. They could continue to trade in a range of $4.7 to $6.7 till the week’s closing. But, growing volatility could compel a test of $6.2 on the higher side and $4.2 on the lower side due to any sudden tilt in the weather forecast.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in natural gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk, as natural gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in Natural Gas. One can create position in Natural Gas at his/her own risk.

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